How Do You Calculate Sure Bets?

In the world of sports betting, the pursuit of sure bets, also known as arbitrage betting, is a strategy sought after by both novice and experienced bettors alike. Sure bets involve exploiting discrepancies in odds across different bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome of an event. While it may seem like a dream come true, successfully identifying and capitalizing on sure bets requires a deep understanding of betting odds, careful calculation, and strategic execution. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll delve into the intricacies of sure bets, explore the methods used to calculate them, and provide insights into how you can leverage this strategy to maximize your betting profits.

Understanding Sure Bets

Understanding Sure Bets

Sure bets occur when the odds offered by different bookmakers for a particular event create an opportunity for profit by covering all possible outcomes. In essence, a sure bet allows a bettor to place multiple bets on all possible outcomes of an event in such a way that, regardless of the outcome, the total winnings exceed the total amount wagered. This discrepancy in odds typically arises due to differences in opinion or calculation among bookmakers, creating a window of opportunity for astute bettors to exploit.

Calculating Sure Bets

Calculating sure bets involves identifying favorable odds across multiple bookmakers and determining the optimal allocation of funds to cover all possible outcomes while ensuring a guaranteed profit. The basic formula for calculating the profitability of a sure bet is as follows:

1. Convert Odds to Probabilities: The first step is to convert the odds offered by each bookmaker to probabilities. This can be done using various online calculators or manually by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.

2. Calculate Implied Probabilities: Once you have the probabilities for each outcome, calculate the implied probabilities for each bookmaker by summing the probabilities of all possible outcomes.

3. Identify Arbitrage Opportunities: Compare the implied probabilities across different bookmakers for the same event. If the combined implied probabilities are less than 1 (100%), an arbitrage opportunity exists.

4. Allocate Funds: Determine the amount to wager on each outcome to ensure a guaranteed profit. This can be calculated using a simple formula based on the size of the total investment and the implied probabilities of each outcome.

5. Place Bets: Place the calculated bets across multiple bookmakers to cover all possible outcomes of the event.

Factors to Consider

While sure bets offer the promise of guaranteed profits, there are several factors to consider when engaging in arbitrage betting:

1. Market Liquidity: Ensure that there is sufficient liquidity in the market to place the necessary bets at the desired odds. Low liquidity can make it challenging to execute sure bets effectively.

2. Bookmaker Limits: Be aware of any maximum bet limits imposed by bookmakers, as exceeding these limits can disrupt the balance of the sure bet and potentially lead to losses.

3. Timing: Odds can fluctuate rapidly, especially close to the start of an event. Monitor odds movements closely and be prepared to act quickly to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities.

4. Account Management: Managing multiple accounts across different bookmakers requires organization and discipline. Keep track of your bets, balances, and account details to ensure smooth execution of sure bets.


Sure bets represent a lucrative opportunity for bettors to generate guaranteed profits by exploiting discrepancies in odds across different bookmakers. By understanding the principles of arbitrage betting and mastering the techniques for calculating sure bets, bettors can unlock a world of potential profits while minimizing risk. However, success with sure bets requires diligence, patience, and a keen eye for opportunity. With careful planning and strategic execution, arbitrage betting can become a valuable addition to any bettor’s arsenal, providing a reliable source of income and enhancing overall betting profitability.

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